Forecasting the Traffic Volume and the Number of M-Flow Users on the Expressway Network

Abstract

The opening of the Multi-Lane Free Flow (M-Flow) toll collection system provides expressway users with convenience, immediacy, and various toll payment channels, resulting in an increase in traffic volume on the expressway. This article presents the forecast of traffic volume and volume of M-Flow system users on the expressway network by applying the Gross Provincial Product (GPP) per population in the form of GPP per capita of Bangkok and its vicinity during the year 2011-2019 for analyzing traffic volume growth rates on four expressways, namely Chalong Rat, Burapha Withi, Kanchanaphisek, and Chalerm Mahanakorn. This study uses the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for analysis to forecast the future traffic volume of each expressway over a 15-year period (2023-2037). The forecast results in Phase 1 (2022) of the 3 toll plazas are expected to increase the number of vehicles using the M-Flow system at 24,000 vehicles /day. At the end of 2023 which M-Flow will be applied on the entire expressway network, the number will increase up to 464,525 vehicles /day. It is anticipated that in 5, 10 and 15 years, M-Flow will reach up to 689,747, 1,092,449, and 1,383,699 vehicles /day respectively.