Factors Influencing Driver Injury Severity on Expressways: Insights from a Binary Logistic Model

Abstract

Recently, Thailand has seen a significant number of road crashes causing from over speeding or driving under influence of alcohol. These factors can result in injury or death to drivers. Sometimes, drivers choose to drive on expressways in order to avoid congestion. In fact, expressways likely to be constructed as a long-straight way and hence resulting in increasing traveling speed relative to normal roadway. This study aims to examine critical factors influencing the driver injury severity applying Binary Logistic model. The model is demonstrated by using crash data from Expressway Authority of Thailand (EXAT), for the years 2020 through 2023 with 7,821 crashes in total. The results highlight those critical factors contributing towards driver injury severity including Time of accident (11.01 p.m. - 05.00 a.m.), Characteristic of crashes (Hit the curb and rear-ender), Characteristic of lane (Curve), and Time to accident (6-10 minutes after accident). Critical factors contributing towards driver injury reduced severity including Time of accident (9.01 a.m. - 3.00 p.m.) and Characteristic of lane (Toll Plaza). The results might provide an insight on the countermeasures to help improve road safety in Thailand. The elasticity effect also identify significant factors influencing the probability of crash severity on expressway in order to propose an appropriate countermeasure.