Cost Forecasting Simulation for Green Office Building under the New Normal of Working Post COVID-19 Situation

Abstract

Green buildings are energy-saving and environmentally friendly, which conform with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as established by the United Nations (UN). Investing in the development green office buildings is tricky and challenging due to high costs. Green buildings could be rated according to Thai’s Rating of Energy and Environmental Sustainability (TREES), in four different levels which are Certified, Gold, Silver, and Platinum. The COVID-19 epidemic crisis caused significant global changes. One of them is the change in work schedule arrangements and building usage from the Ministry of Public Health Policy. Therefore, when the COVID-19 crisis was better, investment planning should be done with greater caution, especially considering investment under the new normal in working environment which are remote working, hybrid working and work form office. The objective of this research is to establish cost forecasting simulation for green office building under the new normal in working post COVID-19 situation and analyzing values for money with the variance of demand which depends on the number of occupants, while the variance of supply depends on 4 levels of green building, non-green building and commercial development. The results of utilizing the decision tree analysis found that the NPV of non-green office with one-story commercial development has the highest which is 206,152,328 baht over the project's 25-year lifespan at a 10% discount rate. Therefore, investing in the development green office buildings will promote value for money and be beneficial when the investment period is planned according to building usage conditions.