The Projection of Shoreline Changes in Tourism Beaches, Phuket Province

Abstract

The Coastal area in Phuket has high utilization of tourism. Declining the beach area affects the country's economic value. This study aimed to propose projection of the shoreline changes in 2100 B.E. from 3 scenario: The shoreline change in the future based on historical data analysis by Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), sea level rise from Bruun model, and GENESIS model. By analyzing historical shoreline changes from the 2008–2022 B.E. with satellite imagery. Tourism beaches in Phuket, including Nai Thon Beach, Kamala Beach, Patong Beach, Karon Beach and Kata Beach. The historical rate of shoreline change is -1.73 to -0.43 m./year. The rate of shoreline change in the future from historical data analysis is -25.90 m., from sea level rise at SSP1 2.6 is -32.66, SSP5 8.5 is -53.81 m. and GENESIS model is 9.98 m. The result showed coastal erosion when considering the historical shoreline change trend and the projection of sea level rise. Coastal area will be accretion in the future if considering the long-term change by GENESIS model, which is not concern the sea level rise and cross-shore sediment transport. This study will apply as a guideline for managing the coastal areas of tourism beaches in Thailand.