Accuracy of Estimated Time Arrival by Applications

Abstract

For modern mobility, there are several smart phone applications that very well facilitate travelers. This study is interested in the three applications that can provide the estimated time arrival (ETA); namely, Google Maps, Moovit which are free of charge and 99 Baht/month Viabus (Fan). The objective is to ascertain the accuracy of their forecast for the sake of choosing an appropriate application. In this study, the sample is bus number 515 running between Mahidol University, Salaya to the Victory Monument. The distance is about 27 kilometers. Data collection was collected for three days; i.e., Sunday 13, Wednesday 16 and Saturday 19 November, 2022. The forecasting accuracy is obtained by comparing between ETA by the three applications and the actual arrival times for 40 trips. The analysis results indicate that ViaBus (Fan) gives the most accurate ETA. The average error is 1 minute and the maximum error is 6 minutes. Such high accuracy is due to its short-term prediction. Google Maps and Moovit give the average forecasting errors of 6 and 32 minutes, respectively. All three applications tend to give slower-than-actual ETA. The computed willingness to pay to ViaBus (Fan) for more accurate ETA above free-of-charge Google Maps is 0.50 Baht per minute.