Forecast of Future Dengue Infection under Global Climate Change Model

Abstract

Dengue fever is a disease caused by a virus transmitted through mosquitoes, impacting millions of people worldwide and posing a significant public health challenge. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the situation by expanding the habitat of Aedes mosquitoes, the primary carriers of the virus. This article analyzes the projected impact of climate change on dengue fever in Chiang Mai province, using five global climate models (GCMs) - CMCC, IPSL, NESM3, TaiESM1, and MIROC6 - to estimate future dengue fever infections. The study employs multiple linear regression and quartile mapping techniques, focusing on environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, and temperature ranges, which significantly impact the disease's spread. The goal is to assess the effectiveness of these models in predicting future dengue fever cases while maintaining the average number of infections close to current levels. This prediction can serve as a valuable tool for healthcare organizations in Chiang Mai province to prepare for the potential spread of dengue fever in the future.