Impacts of Future Climate Change on Inflow to Pasak Jolasid Dam in Pasak River Basin, Thailand

  • Thanasit Promping ภาควิชาวิศวกรรมโยธา คณะวิศวกรรมศาสตร์ศรีราชา มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์ วิทยาเขตศรีราชา
  • Tawatchai Tingsanchali
  • Supatchaya Chuanpongpanich


The impacts of future climate change on inflow to the Pasak Jolasid Dam in the Pasak River Basin was assessed by using the hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) and the bias-corrected climate change projection derived by averaging the outputs of three regional climate models (RCMs) namely: ACCESS, CNRM and MPI. The hydrological response of the Pasak River Basin to future climate projection for the periods 2020s (2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100) was quantified using the calibrated and validated climate change trends and the HEC-HMS hydrological model which was calibrated and verified using the daily observed data from 1970-2010 and 2007-2015 respectively. The simulation results showed that the future precipitation trend fluctuates and slightly decreases until the end of 21st century by –5.69% and -12.68% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 at Lom Sak Station. The projected mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures were found to increase by 4.99% and 6.49% respectively for RCP4.5; by 6.58% and 8.46% respectively for RCP8.5, during twenty-first century. The future inflow to Pasak Jolasid Dam calculated from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was found to decrease by -0.61% and -3.39% for 2020s, by -2.82% and -6.15% for 2050s, and by -7.56% and -9.21% for 2080s respectively. However, these long term prediction on the change of future precipitation and temperature is only an estimate. The results can be used as a guideline for long-term sustainable water resources project planning and water resources management as well as in proposing appropriate adaptation strategies for the Pasak River Basin.