Rainfall Predictions of the Yom River Basin under CMIP6 Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

This study aims to predict and investigate alterations in rainfalls in the Yom River Basin under two CMIP6 climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Observed rainfall data from 11 climate stations and simulated data from 10 global climate models (GCMs) during historical (1994-2014) and future periods under two scenarios (2015-2100) were collected. Results generated from GCMs were then adjusted using the CMhyd application through the linear scaling method to project future rainfalls under climate change scenarios. The results of rainfall from all GCMs, following the bias correction technique and compared to measured data, exhibited R², NSE and P-Bias Values 0.40 to 0.68, 0.29 to 0.67 and -0.76 to -0.03, respectively. The analysis of rainfall trends using the coefficient of variation (CV) and standardized anomaly index (SAI) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015-2100 showed low rainfall variability with CV values ranging from 15.28 to 19.93, and the SAI values resulted from the majority of models, indicating a decreasing trend in annual rainfall within the Yom River Basin.