การคาดการณ์ปริมาณฝนตามระดับการใช้ภาพฉายการปล่อยก๊าซเรือนกระจกแบบใหม่ในพื้นที่เขื่อนอุบลรัตน์และเขื่อนลำปาว

Abstract

Rainfall estimates depending on the new emission scenarios are important for planning the water resource management in region. The research objective aimed to study a tendency of rainfall changes covering the Ubolratana Reservoir and Lampao Reservoir areas in Chi Basin, using base-year rainfall data during 2007-2016 from the Meteorological Department and data of General Circulation Models (GMCs) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during 2020-2050. The following were the five models used in this study: HadGEM2_AO_RA, HadGEM2_AO_RegCM, HadGEM2_AO_YSU_RSM, CORDEX_SEA_EC_EA-RTH, CORDEX_ SEA_EC_EARTH, and CORDEX_SEA_MPI_ESM_MR. The result of this study revealed that HadGEM2_AO_RA model is proper for the rainfall estimates on the area above Ubolratana and Lam Pao reservoirs because the smallest different results from the base-year rainfall data. For the above Ubolratana reservoir, the results were -1.9% and -0.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. While above Lampao reservoir, the results were -3% and 2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The propose of this study is to be adapted to improve water management for agriculture, hydropower, industry, and consumption in the future.