The Study of the impacts on Expressway Operators in Bangkok and Perimeter due to Demographic Changes in Thailand’s Population

Abstract

Thailand has faced challenges in several aspects since 2000 due to the transformation of its demographic structure into an aging society. Studies show that in the next 10 years, 20% of Thais will enter a retirement age, and the number will rise to 30% by 2050. This phenomenon will affect expressway service providers tremendously due to reductions in traveling demand from an increasing proportion of elderly road users and different services they may expect. Therefore, the expressway service providers are facing a huge challenge as the proportion of working-age and school-age expressway users who are the majority of the existing users is declining. In addition, activity-based expressway usage will variously change in terms of the number and the pattern of daily trips such as work, study, business, travel, and other leisure trips. This study focuses on analyzing the impact of changes in the demographic structure particularly in Bangkok and its perimeter on the demand for expressway usage and expressway services and the impact of population structure changes on expressway service providers in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region. 2,237 samples from surveys conducted to study the age range of expressway users and travel activities were used in forecasting future expressway traffic volume. The findings regarding the age profile and traffic growth were analyzed to develop strategic plans for improving the expressway services in response to the changes in the domestic population structure.